Some say the past decade's growth has been markedly less rapid, from 10% to 6%, mainly because of a lack of stimulus. I think the argument is insufficient, let's not say that China's social financing scale grew at about 30% in 2009-2010, but also reached 17% and 18% in 2016 and 2017. In recent years, the scale of China's social financing or the growth of credit in the whole society has been much faster than that of GDP.
On the other hand, the government's fiscal deficit in the past decade, if combined with China's local government's implicit debt, has been around 8% to 10%, well above the world average, so it is not rigorous to say in the process that China's stimulus is not strong enough.
In terms of rising leverage, China has seen the fastest global growth in leverage over the past decade or so; in terms of labor, it has been moving upwards for the past decade. On the other hand, the incomes of migrant workers, as well as the per capita wages of urban collectives and other enterprises, have grown more rapidly than the growth of China's nominal GDP, and the labour force has not seen a significant number of unemployed people in the past decade. From this point of view, it is not found that because of insufficient stimulus, our aggregate supply is far greater than aggregate demand, and there is no such logic that China's economy can grow more rapidly.
Many say that if we were to grow 8% for a decade or two, the only culprit would be the global economy, especially the lehman crisis, which directly led to china's growth rate of 89% per year or 10 or 20 years per year, but the global growth rate slowed after the global financial crisis, so isn't that true for suppressing the growth of exports across china? China's exports are largely in line with the world's growth rate before 2008 and 2009, but after that, the growth rate of the global economy has been only one percentage point slower in the past eight or nine years than before the financial crisis, and China's export growth rate has been nearly 20 percentage points slower. Are they all blame for the global economy? Surely no, there's one reason why we're losing cheap labor at home, and the fact that China's economy is making up a growing proportion of the world's middle, when the world's growth rate is only two or three percent, how can we grow by two or thirty percent a year, and your growth needs have to be restructured.
The main reason China's economic growth has fallen over the past decade is that the country's potential growth rate has fallen, not because of a variety of external demand or insufficient stimulus. What the potential growth rate of our country will be in the next five to ten years is very difficult because it involves judging the future. My judgment is that in the next few years our potential growth will be below 6%, close to 5, or even 4, but more likely to go down to about 5%.