站内查询
您现在的位置是:主页 > 澳门皇冠手机版app > 蘇萊曼尼死了,但美國的麻煩才真正開始,政治上犯了大忌
蘇萊曼尼死了,但美國的麻煩才真正開始,政治上犯了大忌
2020-01-06 21:57  www.katninews.com

美軍用一次成功的空襲,殺死了伊朗革命衛隊“圣城旅”大名鼎鼎的指揮官蘇萊曼尼,這件事成為2020年第一個國際焦點新聞,因為這件事影響或遠遠超出外界的預計:對于已經混亂不堪的中東局勢而言,麻煩可能才剛剛開始。

The killing of the well-known commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Al-Quds Brigade, Sulaymani, by a successful air strike by the United States, became the first international spotlight in 2020, because it affected or far exceeded expectations: trouble could just start in an already chaotic Middle East.

美國總統特朗普得意地在推特上寫道,“伊朗從沒贏過一場戰爭,但也從沒輸過一場談判。”借助殺死蘇萊曼尼的聲勢,他向伊朗提出了談判要求,他的想法很簡單:美國很強大,伊朗絕不敢采取什么過激的保護手段,如果不接受談判,美國將繼續采用這種定點清除的手段繼續削弱伊朗,直到伊朗認輸。

\"Iran has never won a war, but has never lost a negotiation,\" US President Donald Trump tweeted triumphantly. Using the momentum to kill mr suleimani, he made a negotiating plea to iran, which is simple: the united states is so strong that iran would not dare to resort to any drastic means of protection, and if it did not accept the negotiations, the u.s. would continue to use such targeted measures to weaken iran until iran concedes defeat.

顯然,特朗普認為他給伊朗設置了一個無法打破的陷阱:要么在談判中輸掉一切,要么在空襲中輸掉一切。但問題只有一個,事情真的會向他希望的方向發展嗎?

Clearly, Trump believes he has set an unbreakable trap for Iran: losing everything in negotiations or everything in airstrikes. But there's only one question, will things really go the way he wants them to?

很明顯,對于伊朗而言,直接投降認輸和認認真真但打輸了是兩種完全不同的概念,特朗普的談判要求,在伊朗看來和勸降書沒有差別,在美國極限施壓下,伊朗損失已經不小,投降只會一無所有并且被民眾徹底拋棄——事實上,美軍的這次空襲,將美國和伊朗一同拉進了一個囚徒困境:要么兩敗俱傷、要么贏者通吃。

Obviously, for Iran, direct surrender and serious defeat are two completely different concepts, and Trump's negotiating demands, in Iran's view and persuasion, are no different, and under the pressure of America's limits, Iran's losses are not small, surrender will be nothing, and it will be abandoned entirely by the people – indeed, this US air strike has brought the United States and Iran together into a prisoner's dilemma: either lose or win.

美軍殺死蘇萊曼尼之后,伊朗立刻宣布將“嚴厲報復”,這不是虛言恫嚇,而是被美國逼到最后角落的最后警告,而且伊朗的報復很可能不僅局限于伊拉克,而是還包括在敘利亞,甚至可能連同以色列、沙特這些美國的地區盟友,都在伊朗的報復范圍之內。

Immediately after US forces killed Suleimani, Iran announced that it would \"exact revenge,\" not a false threat, but a final warning from the United States to the last corner, and that Iran's retaliation may well not be confined to Iraq, but also in Syria, and possibly even, along with regional allies of the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

據路透社報道,以色列軍隊已經進入最高戒備狀態,畢竟現今美伊之間的緊張狀態,根源就是以色列自己,它用假情報說服特朗普廢除伊核協議、重啟針對伊朗的全面制裁,成為報復對象是天經地義的事情。

The israeli army is on top alert, after all, and the tension between the u.s. and iran is rooted in israel itself, using false intelligence to convince mr. trump to repeal the iranian nuclear deal and restart full-scale sanctions against iran as a target of retaliation.

這樣的局面對美國而言絕非好事,這將意味著中東再次變成一個更加混亂的泥潭,而美軍在其中將會越陷越深,這跟特朗普此前的承諾完全相悖,一旦美軍陷入一場不亞于當初伊拉克那樣的泥潭,顯然是美軍不愿意看到的。

Such a situation would not be good for the United States, which would mean that the Middle East would once again become a more chaotic quagmire, in which the US military would become more and more deeply involved, in total contradiction to Trump's previous commitments, and that once the US military was in a quagmire no less than that of Iraq, the US military would not want to see it.

很明顯,美軍這次對巴格達的空襲,不僅不能消除伊朗對伊拉克政府的影響力,然而可能激起伊拉克政府更大的反感,如果說美軍這次行動在軍事上非常成功,那么在政治上很可能就是一次重大失誤。

It is clear that the u. s.air strike in baghdad not only does not remove iran's influence over the iraqi government, but it could provoke a greater antipathy, and if the u. s.military operation is very successful militarily, it could be a major political mistake.

武力實際上從未真正解決過任何問題,只不過是將問題掩蓋起來,區別只是“掩蓋”的程度不同而已,蘇萊曼尼的死很可能會變成中東局勢的一個重要拐點,如果到那個時候,美國才想抽身?想想阿富汗吧!

Force has actually never really solved any problem, but only to cover up the problem, the difference is only “cover up ” degree is only different, Suleimani's death is likely to become an important inflection point of the situation in the Middle East, if not until then, the United States want to withdraw? Think of Afghanistan!