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新加坡經濟遭遇急剎車李顯龍說了句耐人尋味的話新加坡經濟
2020-01-06 23:28  www.katninews.com

  新加坡日前公布的官方數據顯示,2019年新加坡GDP同比僅增長了%,與2018年%的增速相比,只有四分之一強,和2017年的%相比不到五分之一。

Singapore's GDP grew by only a quarter year-on-year in 2019, only a quarter stronger than in 2018, and less than a fifth in 2017, according to official figures.

  “不夠強勁”是委婉的表述。實際上,2019年新加坡經濟差一點陷入技術性衰退。是什么原因,導致衰退陰影籠罩到新加坡這個亞洲經濟體模范生頭上?

“Not strong enough" is a euphemism. Indeed, Singapore's economy nearly plunged into a technological recession in 2019. What is the cause of the recession looming over singapore as a model economy?

  新加坡港口吞吐量、轉運量與2018年持平;建筑業2018年萎縮了%,但2019年增長了%;服務業增速雖然不及2018年,但也增長了%。

Singapore's port throughput, transit volume is flat with 2018; the construction industry has shrunk by% in 2018, but it has grown by% in 2019; and the service industry has grown by%, although not as fast as 2018.

  新加坡全球性的投資巨獸淡馬錫盡管在2019年賣得多買得少,投資了240億新元,脫售了280億新元,但投資組合凈值仍然增長了50億新元,如果與10年前相比則增加了1830億新元;新加坡的金融資產管理規模也保持在萬億美元左右,近乎新加坡GDP的10倍。

Singapore's global investment behemoth, Temasek, has increased its net portfolio value by S $5 billion, if not S $183 billion, despite selling more or less in 2019, investing S $24 billion and selling off S $28 billion, and its financial asset management has remained around US $trillion, nearly 10 times Singapore's GDP, compared with S $183 billion a decade ago.

  導致新加坡經濟低迷的主要是制造業。制造業占新加坡GDP的20%左右,制造業中的大頭是電子和精密工程,占比約40%。2019年新加坡制造業同比萎縮了%,而2018年還擴張了7%。

The main cause of Singapore's economic downturn is manufacturing. Manufacturing accounts for about 20% of Singapore's GDP, with electronics and precision engineering accounting for about 40% of manufacturing. Manufacturing in Singapore shrank by% year-on-year in 2019, while it expanded by 7% in 2018.

  導致新加坡電子產業萎靡的主要原因是全球需求下降。2019年,預計全球芯片需求下降%左右,新加坡數以百計的半導體企業因此不同程度地陷入重圍。這些企業多數是新加坡與歐美日企業合辦的,盡管合辦企業讓新加坡半導體產業的全球占比迅速上升,但一旦外部形勢有變,很容易陷入被動。

The main cause of Singapore's weak electronics industry is falling global demand. Hundreds of semiconductor companies in Singapore are in varying degrees as global chip demand is projected to fall by around% in 2019. Most of these companies are joint ventures between singapore and the u.s. and japan. Although joint ventures have led to a rapid increase in the global share of singapore's semiconductor industry, they can easily become passive if external conditions change.

  去年初新加坡官方預測的2019年經濟增速也只有%-%,低于2018年。去年一季度,新加坡GDP同比增長僅為%,延續了2018年逐季下降的勢頭;二季度GDP出現了負增長。但當時新加坡一直保持已實施了兩年多的貨幣緊縮政策。

At the beginning of last year, Singapore's official forecast for growth in 2019 was also only%-%, lower than in 2018. In the first quarter of last year, Singapore ' s GDP grew by just% year-on-year, continuing the quarterly decline of 2018; in the second quarter, GDP grew negatively. But at the time Singapore maintained a monetary tightening policy that had been in place for more than two years.

  直到10月份才降息,讓三季度GDP實現了正增長,避免了連續兩個季度負增長從而陷入技術性衰退。顯然貨幣政策的調整有點晚了。

It wasn't until October that it cut interest rates, giving third-quarter GDP positive growth and avoiding two consecutive quarters of negative growth and plunging into a technical recession. The adjustment of monetary policy is obviously a little late.

  二是新加坡的電子產業雖然發展了10多年,但在技術上沒有沖到最上游。新加坡電子產業企業多數是合辦,合辦企業注重市場占領而不是尖端技術開發,因此面對國際貿易摩擦加劇后的變局,應對乏力。比如,合辦企業不得不擔心上了美國商務部的實體黑名單。

Second, although the electronics industry in Singapore has been developing for more than 10 years, it has not been technically up to the top. Most singapore's electronics companies are co-operatives, with joint ventures focusing on market occupation rather than cutting-edge technology development, which is why they are struggling to cope with the growing international trade friction. Joint ventures, for example, have to worry about being blacklisted by the Commerce Department.

  可以說,新加坡電子業2019年的表現,對于有志于自主研發和掌握半導體核心技術的經濟體來說,提供了反面案例。不能什么都靠市場。

Arguably, the performance of singapore's electronics industry in 2019 provides a negative case for an economy that is interested in developing and mastering core semiconductor technologies. You can't rely on the market for everything.

  一方面是新加坡2020年上半年將舉行大選。人民行動黨有實施更積極的財政和貨幣政策的動力。李顯龍在新年獻詞中已經透露,即將公布的財政預算案將支持企業提高生產力和培養新能力,政府還將進行技能培訓和建設社會安全網。

On the one hand, Singapore will hold general elections in the first half of 2020. The PAP has the incentive to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies. The forthcoming budget will support businesses to improve productivity and build new capabilities, the government will also conduct skills training and build social safety nets, mr li said in a new year's speech.

  另一方面,新加坡家底很厚實,雖然本國產業支撐力不夠,但多年來在金融資產管理、出口市場布局方面已積累了足夠經驗。

On the other hand, singapore has a solid background and, although its industry is not strong enough, it has accumulated enough experience in financial asset management and export market layout over the years.

  淡馬錫在中國市場的投資額占到了26%,與新加坡本國一樣;中國也仍然是新加坡最大的出口市場。這一點和韓國半導體產業類似。韓國半導體產業2019年遭遇重創,出口下降了%,但在中國仍然保持了5%左右的增長。

Temasek has 26 per cent of its investment in the Chinese market, the same as Singapore itself; China remains the largest export market in Singapore. This is similar to the South Korean semiconductor industry. South Korea's semiconductor industry suffered a heavy blow in 2019, with exports down%, but still maintained around 5% growth in China.

  基于新加坡的經濟特點,這幾年新加坡特別強調維護多邊主義和自由貿易,也積極參與RCEP等多邊框架的建設。畢竟,要應對產業危機,除了提升自己的產業競爭力,對單邊主義大聲說不,也是不得不為的事。

Based on Singapore's economic characteristics, in recent years Singapore has placed special emphasis on upholding multilateralism and free trade, and has also actively participated in the construction of multilateral frameworks such as RCEP. After all, to deal with the industrial crisis, in addition to improving their industrial competitiveness, unilateralism to say no, but also have to do.